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本文以1990—2003年为考察时段,从总体和产业两个层面,对中国在亚太地区主要经济体出口增长中的贡献度进行实证评估。通过对各经济体出口增长来源的分解,我们发现亚太地区的贸易扩张越来越依赖于需求拉动的作用,而从需求方面看,中国对亚太地区贸易增长的贡献越来越大,对本地区经济的影响力已替代了日本。东盟对中国的依赖程度越来越高。一个以中国为中心的更加紧密的东亚地区贸易关系正在形成,这为今后该地区区域经济一体化的发展创造了一个良好的合作基础和利益来源。
This paper, taking the period of 1990-2003 as the research period, makes an empirical assessment of the contribution of China in the export growth of the major economies in the Asia Pacific region from the overall and the industrial levels. Through the decomposition of the sources of export growth in various economies, we find that the expansion of trade in the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly dependent on the role of demand-pull. In terms of demand, China’s contribution to the growth of trade in the Asia-Pacific region is getting bigger and bigger. The influence has replaced Japan. ASEAN’s dependence on China is getting higher and higher. A tighter East Asia trade relations centering on China is taking shape. This has created a good basis for cooperation and a source of benefits for the development of regional economic integration in the region in the future.