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目的探讨重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数随时间的变化规律,为控制和预防肺结核提供科学依据。方法采用SPSS13.0软件对2005～2009年重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数资料建立ARIMA模型,利用该模型预测2010年1月～12月的涂阳肺结核月发病数,对模型的短期预测及其效果进行初步评价。结果建立的ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12模型是拟合重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数的合适模型,2005～2009年观测值落在拟合值95%的可信区间内,2010年预测值的平均相对误差为6.31%。结论 ARIMA(1,1,0)×(0,1,1)12模型能很好地预测重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病情况,为控制和预防肺结核提供了可靠依据。
Objective To investigate the variation of the incidence of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Chongqing over time and to provide a scientific basis for the control and prevention of pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods ARIMA model was established by using SPSS 13.0 software to estimate the incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing from 2005 to 2009. The model was used to predict the monthly incidence of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis from January to December in 2010 and its short- The effect of a preliminary evaluation. Results The ARIMA (1,1,0) × (0,1,1) 12 model was an appropriate model to fit the incidence of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Chongqing in 2005-2009, with the observed value falling to 95% of the fitted value In the confidence interval, the average relative error of the 2010 forecast is 6.31%. Conclusion ARIMA (1,1,0) × (0,1,1) 12 model can predict the incidence of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Chongqing well and provide a reliable basis for the control and prevention of pulmonary tuberculosis.