论文部分内容阅读
本文基于卢卡斯(Lucas)模型,利用中国1978～2010年经济发展数据,计算总需求的产出效应和通胀效应,并结合我国地区发展差异较大且各地区经济发展动力不同的国情,分析了我国31个省、市、自治区需求变动的产出效应和通胀效应。结果表明,我国总需求政策产出效应小于通胀效应,且1991年之后产出效应下降显著。我国31个省、市、自治区的数据结果显示,山西、内蒙古、上海、浙江等资源拉动型发展地区和东部沿海地区产出效应相对较高。
Based on the Lucas model, we use the economic development data from 1978 to 2010 in China to calculate the output effect and inflation effect of aggregate demand. Combining with the different national conditions in different regions and the different economic development motives in our country, The output effect and inflation effect of the demand change in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in our country. The results show that the output effect of China’s aggregate demand policy is less than the inflation effect, and the output effect has dropped significantly since 1991. Data from 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China show that the output effect of resource-driven development areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai and Zhejiang and the eastern coastal areas is relatively high.