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本论文运用年龄结构—生命周期方法分析农民工就业状况对他们城镇化的影响。基于中国企业用工年轻化、农民工失业中年化的现状,论文首先运用年龄结构—生命周期模型进行了估算,指出为了全家城镇化,农民工夫妻婚后一般需要连续工作30 年。在此基础上,论文构建了农民工工作寿命表,用以估算中国具备城镇化最低限度经济能力的农民工总量。考虑到未来企业用工年龄结构的变化,预计2006年时年龄在 30岁以下的6900多万农民工及其家属都已具备在城镇定居的最起码的经济条件。
This thesis uses the age structure - life cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers employment status on their urbanization. Based on the current situation of the younger workers in China and the middle-aged unemployed migrant workers, this paper first estimates the age structure-life cycle model and points out that in order to urbanize the whole family, migrant workers generally need to work continuously for 30 years after their marriage. On this basis, the paper constructs a working life table of migrant workers to estimate the total amount of migrant workers who have the minimum economic capacity of urbanization in China. Given the changes in the age structure of employment of enterprises in the future, more than 69 million migrant workers and their families under the age of 30 are expected to have the minimum economic conditions to settle in urban areas by 2006.