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2013年的中国外贸形势不会出现大的好转,世界整体经济环境与中国经济进程,似乎都无法为中国外贸发展提供强力支撑。就世界整体经济环境与全球贸易环境来看,2013年至少无法为中国外贸增长提供有利支撑。据国际货币基金组织的最新预测,2013年全球经济增速仅为3.7%;世界贸易组织预测2013年全球贸易增长为4.5%。这两个数字,均比2012年增速有所提高,但仍低于危机前水平。从中国国内情况看,今年GDP增速8%应该能够实现,明年目标应该是力保7.5%。以往的经济高速增长、支持外贸高速发展的局面,将不复存在。
The situation in China’s foreign trade in 2013 will not show any major improvement. The overall economic environment in the world and the economic progress in China seem to be unable to provide strong support for the development of China’s foreign trade. In terms of the overall economic environment of the world and the global trade environment, 2013 will at least not provide favorable support for the growth of China’s foreign trade. According to the latest IMF forecast, the global economic growth in 2013 was only 3.7%; the World Trade Organization forecast global trade growth of 4.5% in 2013. Both figures are higher than the growth rate in 2012, but still below pre-crisis levels. Judging from China’s domestic situation, this year’s GDP growth rate of 8% should be achieved. The goal for next year should be to protect 7.5%. The rapid economic growth in the past and the rapid growth of foreign trade will no longer exist.