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一般人认为股市是宏观经济的晴雨表,这一轮行情即今年5月19日到6月29日,沪深两市综合指数分别上涨56.8%和61.2%,是我国经济复苏迹象的反映。但事实上,宏观经济形势对股市上升的支持力度并不大。而且我国证券市场中上市公司的业绩普遍较差,市场具有很大的波动性使其对消费的刺激作用受到较大的限制。笔者认为,有两个因素在支持这一次股市上涨,其一是政策因素;其二是资金因素。纵观中国股市近14年的发展历程,股市受政策面影响极大。从1990年到1992年春,中国股市节节上升,放开股价后,直冲1400点,政府担心泡沫太多(当时仅20多个股票),以“不断增加供给”为主要措施向下调控,股市在几个月中急速下跌到392点。股市过度下跌不利于股份制改革,
Most people think that the stock market is a barometer of the macro economy. This round of market is May 19 to June 29 this year. The composite indices of Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 56.8% and 61.2% respectively, reflecting the signs of China’s economic recovery. However, in fact, the macroeconomic situation is not strong enough to support the rising stock market. Moreover, the performance of listed companies in China’s securities market is generally poor, and the market has great volatility, which limits its stimulating effect on consumption. The author believes that there are two factors that support this stock market rise, one of the policy factors; the second is the funding factor. Throughout the history of China’s stock market nearly 14 years of development, the stock market is greatly affected by the policy. From 1990 to the spring of 1992, the Chinese stock market steadily rose. After opening its stock price, it plummeted 1400 points. The government feared that the bubble was too much (at that time, only 20 stocks), with the “increasing supply” as the main measure. Regulation, the stock market plunged to 392 in a matter of months. The stock market fell too much is not conducive to joint-stock reform,