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9月26日,国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布了它的《世界经济展望》秋季报告。按照这一报告提出的预测,2001年,世界经济的增长速度将由2000年的4.7%下降到2.6%,而在 IMF 的春季报告中,世界经济增长速度的预测值为3.2%。然而,就是在秋季报告里,IMF 却对中国经济的表现大为赞赏。IMF 认为,尽管受外部经济环境的影响,2001年,中国经济的增长速度会略低于去年,但仍然可以达到7.5%。这一数值,比 IMF 春季报告的预测值调高了0.5个百分点。10月16日,中国社会科学院也发表了它的《中国经济形势分析与预测》秋季报告,这一报告也给出了2001年中国经济增长速度的预测值:7.5%。那么,实际情况又如何呢?
On September 26, the International Monetary Fund released its autumn report on the World Economic Outlook. According to the forecast made in this report, in 2001 the world economic growth rate will drop from 4.7% in 2000 to 2.6%. In the IMF’s spring report, the world economic growth rate is forecast to be 3.2%. However, it was in the autumn report that the IMF greatly appreciated China’s economic performance. In the opinion of the IMF, despite the impact of the external economic environment, China’s economy will grow at a slightly slower pace than in the previous year in 2001, but it will still reach 7.5%. This figure is 0.5 percentage points higher than the forecast reported by IMF in the spring. On the 16th of October, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also released its autumn report entitled “Analysis and Forecast of the Economic Situation in China”. The report also gives a forecast of 7.5% of China’s economic growth in 2001. So what is the actual situation?