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强矿震发生前的大量矿震信号是评价冲击矿压危险的重要信息源。本文以平十一矿安装的SOS高精度微震监测为基础,利用主成分分析技术构建了震源集中程度指标值,与震源能量和震动频次的现场统计研究结果表明:1)强矿震主要集中在煤层群多工作面停采线包围的煤柱叠加群内;2)强矿震发生前,震源能量首先经历1个震动活跃期,之后出现较明显的下降阶段,当震动频次维持在较高水平时,具有强矿震危险性;3)震动次数越多,震源集中程度指标值越小,发生强矿震的可能性就越大。基于3个参量的前兆规律,针对平十一矿建立了冲击危险性打分标准,并利用累加法进行冲击危险的整体评价,结果表明该评价体系能够及时指导现场防治降低冲击危险性。
A large number of strong earthquakes before strong earthquakes is an important source of information for assessing the risk of rockburst. Based on the high-precision microseismic monitoring of SOS installed in Ping 11 Mine, the principal component analysis (PCA) technique was used to construct the indicator of concentration degree of the focal point. The field statistical results of the energy and frequency of the seismic source show that: 1) Before the occurrence of strong mining earthquakes, the source energy first experienced a period of active vibration, followed by a more obvious descending stage. When the vibration frequency was maintained at a relatively high level , There is a strong risk of earthquakes; 3) The more times of vibration, the smaller the concentration of the focal point index, the greater the probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes. Based on the precursory rules of three parameters, the impact risk scoring standard was established for Ping 11 Mine, and the cumulative assessment of impact risk was carried out using the cumulative method. The results show that the evaluation system can timely guide the on-site prevention and control to reduce the impact risk.