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芝加哥大学布斯商学院教授德文·波普和他的同事研究发现,天气暖和的日子里,敞篷跑车的销售情况就会变好。天气好的时候,人们就容易将现有的需求和未来的美好图景混淆起来,效果如同饿着肚子去逛超市,常常会买下自己并不需要的东西。人在饥肠辘辘的时候,会买更多罐头汤之类的食品。同样,当你在灿烂的阳光下去逛车行,一辆闪闪发光的跑车就会显得格外诱人。人们总爱把片刻间的感受当成永远,心理学家称之为预测偏差,即不能正确预期未来的损失强度。这种现象在心理学领域已经有过很多研究,但是直接把它与汽车销售联系起来,并且经过严密的统计得出结论,波普教授的尝试还是第一次。
Devin Pope, a professor at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and his colleagues found that in the warmer days, the roadster’s sales will get better. When the weather is nice, people can easily confuse existing needs with a beautiful picture of the future, with the effect of going to the supermarket hungry and often buying things they do not need. When people are hungry, they will buy more food such as canned soups. Similarly, when you visit the car in the bright sunshine, a shiny sports car will be particularly attractive. People always love the moment as a permanent feeling, psychologists call it a forecast bias, that is, can not correctly predict the intensity of future losses. There have been many studies of this phenomenon in the field of psychology, but the direct link between it and car sales and the close statistics concluded that Professor Pope’s attempt was the first.