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The General Administration of Cus- toms published the data about the import and export of China in 2011 on January 11, 2012.
The data shows that the total imports and exports volume of China in 2011 amounted to 3.642 trillion U.S. dollars, up 22.5% from 2010. The total imports and exports volume hit the historical high but the trade surplus dropped by 14.5% to 155.14 billion U.S. dollars.
Lowest Growth Rate in December
The growth rate of China’s imports and exports volume in 2011 took an inverted U- shaped pattern. According to the data published by the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of imports and exports volume in December maintained the downward trend like the previous months. Both the growth rate of imports volume and exports volume dropped to the lowest point in years.
The total exports volume in December is 174.72 U.S. dollars and the growth rate was 13.4%, the lowest in the past ten months. If the effect of the Chinese Spring Festival was removed, the growth rate was the lowest since November 2009. In addition, the imports volume of that month reached 158.2 billion U.S. dollars with the growth rate dropping to 11.8% - the lowest point in the past 26 months.
Chen Letian, a fellow of macroeconomics from Xiangcai Securities, said that the decreasing growth rate of exports volume in December showed that the foreign demand did not recover. The decreasing investment should be blamed for the low imports growth. In addition, the low consumption demand and the depressed imported material processing were to be blamed for the decreasing imports and exports growth rate as well.
Shen Danyang, spokeswoman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said that the severe and complicated global economic situation and the change of domestic and foreign environment would continue to influence China’s foreign trade in 2012. Therefore, the foreign trade situation of China is not very good this year.
The Severe Foreign Trade Situation
The data shows that the growth rate of imports volume of China in 2011, guided by the policy of “expanding imports volume”, is 4.6 percent higher than the exports growth rate in the same year. This caused the trade surplus of China to be narrowed again to 155.14 billion U.S. dollars. This was the third year that China witnessed the drop of its trade surplus and the amount hit the historical high from 2006.
According to the historical data, the proportion of trade surplus in GDP dropped from 3.1% in 2010 to 2% in 2011. The ratio between the trade surplus and total trade volume was 4.3%, 1.8 percent lower than the ratio in 2010. But it was still in the reasonable interval. In Chen Letian’s opinion, the trade surplus of China will be further narrowed in 2012 and the extent will be larger than before. The total trade surplus is expected to reach 85 billion U.S. dollars in 2012.
Moreover, though the exports situation may be bad in 2012, the policies about exportation are expected to remain unchanged on the basis of promoting structural upgrade. No significant tax refund of favorable conditions will be available. The favorable policies, if any, will focus on industrial upgrade to eliminate some low valueadded products.
The data shows that the total imports and exports volume of China in 2011 amounted to 3.642 trillion U.S. dollars, up 22.5% from 2010. The total imports and exports volume hit the historical high but the trade surplus dropped by 14.5% to 155.14 billion U.S. dollars.
Lowest Growth Rate in December
The growth rate of China’s imports and exports volume in 2011 took an inverted U- shaped pattern. According to the data published by the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of imports and exports volume in December maintained the downward trend like the previous months. Both the growth rate of imports volume and exports volume dropped to the lowest point in years.
The total exports volume in December is 174.72 U.S. dollars and the growth rate was 13.4%, the lowest in the past ten months. If the effect of the Chinese Spring Festival was removed, the growth rate was the lowest since November 2009. In addition, the imports volume of that month reached 158.2 billion U.S. dollars with the growth rate dropping to 11.8% - the lowest point in the past 26 months.
Chen Letian, a fellow of macroeconomics from Xiangcai Securities, said that the decreasing growth rate of exports volume in December showed that the foreign demand did not recover. The decreasing investment should be blamed for the low imports growth. In addition, the low consumption demand and the depressed imported material processing were to be blamed for the decreasing imports and exports growth rate as well.
Shen Danyang, spokeswoman for China’s Ministry of Commerce, said that the severe and complicated global economic situation and the change of domestic and foreign environment would continue to influence China’s foreign trade in 2012. Therefore, the foreign trade situation of China is not very good this year.
The Severe Foreign Trade Situation
The data shows that the growth rate of imports volume of China in 2011, guided by the policy of “expanding imports volume”, is 4.6 percent higher than the exports growth rate in the same year. This caused the trade surplus of China to be narrowed again to 155.14 billion U.S. dollars. This was the third year that China witnessed the drop of its trade surplus and the amount hit the historical high from 2006.
According to the historical data, the proportion of trade surplus in GDP dropped from 3.1% in 2010 to 2% in 2011. The ratio between the trade surplus and total trade volume was 4.3%, 1.8 percent lower than the ratio in 2010. But it was still in the reasonable interval. In Chen Letian’s opinion, the trade surplus of China will be further narrowed in 2012 and the extent will be larger than before. The total trade surplus is expected to reach 85 billion U.S. dollars in 2012.
Moreover, though the exports situation may be bad in 2012, the policies about exportation are expected to remain unchanged on the basis of promoting structural upgrade. No significant tax refund of favorable conditions will be available. The favorable policies, if any, will focus on industrial upgrade to eliminate some low valueadded products.