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在气候变化和水资源短缺背景下,河北低平原地区冬小麦生产面临着巨大挑战。本研究以沧州市吴桥县为例,分析该地区1981—2015年冬小麦生育期内各项气象因素变化特征,采用SIMETAW模型模拟冬小麦各生育期需水量变化,分析冬小麦各生育阶段的水分生态适应性,提出影响冬小麦各生育阶段需水量的重要气象因素。结果表明:近35年来,气温是冬小麦生育期内变化最为显著的气象因素,其中最低气温呈极显著上升趋势,增幅为0.41℃/10a,平均气温呈显著上升趋势,增温幅度为0.27℃/10a;其次是降雨量的变化,冬小麦生育期内降雨量历年来呈增加趋势,每10年增加6.06mm;其他气象因素均呈不显著上升趋势。在上述气候变化背景下,冬小麦生育期内需水量近35年总体呈上升趋势,其中1981—1998年需水量呈下降趋势,1998—2015年呈上升趋势;冬小麦3个生长阶段(播种~越冬、返青~拔节、孕穗~成熟)的需水量均为上升趋势,其中拔节~返青阶段需水量显著高于其他2个生育阶段,且水分生态适应性最差,降水耦合度多年平均仅为17.84%。影响冬小麦各生育阶段需水量的气象因素有所不同,其中影响冬小麦返青~拔节阶段需水量的主要因素包括空气相对湿度(-)、最高气温(+)、平均风速(+)、太阳辐射(+)、最低气温(+)。根据回归方程,预测吴桥县冬小麦生育期需水量在2020和2030年分别为466.7和472.6mm。本研究结果将为河北低平原地区冬小麦节水种植制度构建提供理论依据。
Against the backdrop of climate change and water shortages, winter wheat production in Hebei’s low-lying plain faces enormous challenges. Taking Wuqiao County of Cangzhou City as an example, this paper analyzed the changes of meteorological factors during winter wheat growth period from 1981 to 2015 in the area. SIMETAW model was used to simulate the changes of water requirement of winter wheat at different growing stages. The ecological adaptability of winter wheat at each growth stage was analyzed. , Put forward the important meteorological factors that affect the water requirement of each growth stage of winter wheat. The results showed that the temperature was the most significant meteorological factor during the growth period of winter wheat in the past 35 years, of which the minimum temperature showed a very significant upward trend, with an increase of 0.41 ℃ / 10a and a significant increase of average temperature of 0.27 ℃ / 10a; followed by the change of rainfall. During the growth period of winter wheat, the rainfall showed an increasing trend over the years, increasing 6.06mm every 10 years. Other meteorological factors showed no significant upward trend. Under the above background of climate change, water demand during the growth period of winter wheat has generally been on the rise in recent 35 years, of which the water demand decreased from 1981 to 1998 and increased from 1998 to 2015. The winter wheat growth stages (sowing ~ overwintering, The water requirement of jointing-rejuvenation stage was significantly higher than that of the other two fertility stages, and the water ecological adaptability was the worst. The average annual coupling degree of precipitation was only 17.84%. The main factors influencing the water requirement of winter wheat during its rejuvenation-jointing stage include the relative humidity of air (-), the highest temperature (+), the average wind speed (+), the solar radiation (+ ), The lowest temperature (+). According to the regression equation, it is predicted that the water requirement of winter wheat in Wuqiao County will be 466.7 and 472.6 mm in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The results of this study will provide a theoretical basis for the establishment of winter wheat water-saving planting system in Hebei low plains.