论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨北京市2008—2009年大气PM10浓度的时空分布特征和人群暴露水平,分析北京市大气PM10浓度对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的暴露-反应关系。方法采用克里格插值模型对研究期间北京市大气PM10的日均浓度进行估计,采用时间序列的广义相加混合效应模型分析大气PM10浓度对居民呼吸系统疾病死亡的暴露-反应关系。结果北京市2008—2009年大气PM10的日均浓度为118.6μg/m3,高于GB 3095—1996《环境空气质量标准》二级标准。研究期间大气PM10浓度呈现自北向南逐渐升高的空间分布规律。北京市大气PM10浓度每升高10μg/m3对呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额危险度为0.56%(95%CI:0.28%~0.83%)。引入多污染物模型后大气PM10浓度对呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额危险度略有减小,但仍有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论采用克里格插值模型能够较为精确地估计北京市大气PM10浓度的空间分布状况;大气PM10浓度对北京市居民呼吸系统死亡存在一定的暴露-反应关系。
Objective To investigate the temporal and spatial distribution of atmospheric PM10 concentration and population exposure in Beijing from 2008 to 2009 and to analyze the exposure-response relationship of PM10 concentration in Beijing to inhalation respiratory disease deaths. Methods Krieger interpolation model was used to estimate the daily average concentration of PM10 in Beijing during the study period. The time-series generalized additive effect model was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship of PM10 concentration in residential population. Results The average daily PM10 concentration in Beijing from 2008 to 2009 was 118.6 μg / m3, which was higher than the second grade of Ambient Air Quality Standard GB 3095-1996. During the study period, the atmospheric PM10 concentration showed a spatial distribution that gradually increased from north to south. The excess risk of death from respiratory diseases was 0.56% (95% CI: 0.28% -0.83%) for every 10 μg / m3 of atmospheric PM10 concentration in Beijing. After the introduction of multi-pollutant model, the excess risk of PM10 concentration in respiratory system diseases decreased slightly, but there was still statistical significance (P <0.05). Conclusion The Kriging interpolation model can be used to estimate the spatial distribution of atmospheric PM10 concentration in Beijing more accurately. The atmospheric PM10 concentration has some exposure-response relationship with respiratory death in Beijing.