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水文预报关系着防洪调度,关系着国家的长治久安,关系着百姓的生命安全,是一项至关重要的工作。由于受到内外部一些客观条件限制,水文预报始终存在着一定的不确定性。为此,文章根据国内外大量文献资料对水文预报不确定性进行了概述,并对其未来发展做出了展望。以期加快水文预定不确定研究进程,最大程度低降低水文预定工作的不确定性,实现水文预报与决策耦合。
Hydrological forecasting is related to flood control and dispatching, is related to the country’s long-term peace and stability, and affects people’s lives and safety. It is a crucial task. Due to some internal and external objective conditions, there is always some uncertainty in hydrological forecasting. Therefore, based on a large amount of literature both at home and abroad, the article summarizes the uncertainty of hydrological forecast and makes a prospect of its future development. With a view to speeding up the process of hydrological forecasting uncertainty, the uncertainty of hydrological forecasting work will be lowered to a great extent, and hydrological forecasting and decision-making coupling will be realized.