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预计2004年中国宏观经济增长9.1%,比2003年小幅回落,实现稳健快速增长的调控目标,特别是在“有保有压”的稳健型宏观政策作用下,经济成功地避免了因投资过热而可能引起的大起大落,经济增长中的一些不健康、不稳定的因素得到了明显化解,同时,一些薄弱环节得到了明显加强。中央经济工作会议确定的2005年双稳健经济政策,实际是对2004年“有保有压”宏观调控政策的确认,并不意味着2005年宏观政策会加大紧缩力度。目前中国经济正在处于新一轮长期加速增长周期的第一次调整巩固期(或整固期)。我们相信,经过两年左右时间的整固,中国经济仍继续在新一轮快速增长周期的上升轨道运行。2005年将会实现8%~8.5%的稳健型增长,投资和出口增长将会明显放慢,通胀压力趋弱。2005年采取的“双稳健型”的宏观经济政策,将继续体现“有保有压”的原则,有紧有松,在方式上仍然是采取灵活“微调”的方式,在手段上将更加注重运用法律和市场手段,而且将注重结构优化和转变经济增长方式,努力提高经济增长质量和效益。
China’s macroeconomic growth is expected to be 9.1% in 2004, slightly down from 2003 to achieve a steady and rapid growth and control of the macroeconomic policies. In particular, under the steady macroeconomic policy of “maintaining capital pressure,” the economy has succeeded in avoiding the overheated investment However, some ups and downs that may have caused the ups and downs and some unhealthy and unstable factors in economic growth have been obviously resolved. At the same time, some weaknesses have been significantly strengthened. The biannual economic policy of 2005 set by the Central Economic Work Conference is actually a confirmation of the “macroeconomic control policy” in 2004 and does not mean that macroeconomic policies will intensify the tightening in 2005. At present, the economy of China is in the midst of the first consolidation (or consolidation) of a new round of long-term accelerated growth cycle. We believe that after two years or so of consolidation, the Chinese economy will continue its upward spiral in the new cycle of rapid growth. The steady growth of 8% ~ 8.5% will be achieved in 2005, the investment and export growth will slow down obviously and the inflationary pressure will weaken. The macroeconomic policy of “bistable” adopted in 2005 will continue to embody the principle of “maintaining the pressure and maintaining the pressure” and will continue to adopt a flexible and “fine-tuning” approach in the means The general will pay more attention to the use of laws and market instruments, and will focus on optimizing the structure and transforming the mode of economic growth, and strive to improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth.