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基于协同学和博弈论理论,分析了都市圈技术创新“孤岛效应”的内在机理。都市圈技术创新协同的“囚徒困境”博弈模型的结果表明:都市圈技术创新“孤岛效应”是圈内不同城市之间非理性竞争行为所导致的协同困境,根源于城际相互信任和协同机制的缺乏、协同激励的不足以及投机的高诱惑性和惩罚机制的缺失。此外,“孤岛效应”的路径依赖性结果表明,从长期来看,城际技术创新协同的“囚徒困境”在长期的协同过程中是可以克服的。由此,需要构建都市圈城际有效的诚信机制、协同机制、约束机制、惩戒机制以及激励机制,以建立都市圈内城市之间长期、稳定的协同关系。
Based on the theory of synergetics and game theory, this paper analyzes the inner mechanism of technological innovation and “island effect” in the metropolitan area. The results of collaborative Prisoners’ Dilemma game model in metropolitan area show that the technological innovation of metropolitan area and islanding effect are the synergies caused by the irrational competition among different cities in the metropolitan area, The lack of trust and cooperation mechanisms, the lack of synergistic incentives and the high temptation of speculation and the absence of penal mechanisms. In addition, the path dependence of “island effect ” shows that in the long run, “Prisoners’ Dilemma” of inter-city technological innovation synergy can be overcome in long-term synergy. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an effective mechanism of honesty, coordination, restraint, punishment and incentive mechanism in the inter-city metropolitan area in order to establish long-term and stable synergies among cities in the metropolitan area.