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传统战略方法的核心是,假设企业领导在运用一系列强大的分析工具后,能够准确地预测业务前景,从而选择明确的战略方向。该过程通常要求人们在低估不确定性的情况下,相当准确地勾画出一幅可以用折现现金流分析的前景。如果前景真的难以估测,即使该方法有用,作用也微乎其微,弄不好还有危险。低估不确定情况下产生的战略,既不能让企业防御不确定性带来的风险,同时管理层也无法按照传统的分析来制定战略,这样他们就会迁怒于规划过程,结果就干脆弃之不用,凭直觉进行决策。 即便在最不确定的环境下,没有几个经理人会轻视战略的重要性。而要想在不确定性的条件下制定系统而可靠的战略决策,就要避开上述两种危险的观点。一个公司面临发展的不确定性,可以采取三种战略姿态,以及与之相应的三种行动。 战略姿态:开创、跟进和观望。从根本上说,姿态是界定一个企业在其行业里的现在和未来形势而选择的战略目标。
The core of the traditional strategic approach is to assume that corporate leaders, after applying a series of powerful analytical tools, can accurately predict business prospects and choose a clear strategic direction. This process often requires people to fairly accurately sketch the prospect of discounted cash flow analysis while underestimating uncertainty. If the prospects are really difficult to estimate, even if the method is useful and the effect is minimal, there are dangers. Underestimating the strategies generated under uncertain circumstances can neither allow enterprises to guard against the risks brought about by uncertainty, nor can management formulate strategies based on traditional analysis. As a result, they will be exasperated in the planning process and the results will simply be abandoned. Make decisions based on intuition. Even in the most uncertain environment, few managers will underestimate the importance of strategy. To make systematic and reliable strategic decisions under conditions of uncertainty, we must avoid the above two dangerous views. A company faces uncertainty in its development and can adopt three strategic postures and three corresponding actions. Strategic stance: Create, follow-up, and wait-and-see. Fundamentally speaking, posture is the strategic goal chosen by defining a company’s current and future situation in its industry.