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The brand new fourth generation of fighters Shenyang J-31， large military transport aircraft Xi’an Y-20， Queen Bee anti-tank rocket system， supersonic target drone， Dragon-12 surface-toair missile… In the Zhuhai Air Show ended November 21， 2014， a large number of arms newly developed by Chinese weapon manufacturers revealed themselves to the public.
“In recent years， the increase in the arms export of China drew the attention of foreigners，” the Listed Companies Research Center of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences （CASS）， AVIC Securities Co.， Ltd and Social Sciences Academic Press（China） wrote in the Development Report of Listed Companies in China （2014） they jointly published on November 17， 2014.
The report said that China-made high-end military devices had gradually been accepted internationally and found a stable place in the “global club of advanced weapons”. “In the future， it will earn more foreign orders of arms.”
“China is expected to become the third largest arms exporter in the future after the United States and Russia in the near future，” says Li Junzheng， a senior researcher with Financial Institute of AVIC Securities.
Defense Spending Assists in Stable Development of Military Industry
The weapon-making enterprises’ clients are none other than domestic and foreign governments and armies. According to Li Junzheng， the outlook of national defense technology industry， in terms of the source of income， primarily depends on the growth rate in the government’s budget for defense and its allocation， with the outlook of arms export as the second most important factor.
On March 5， 2014， China’s Ministry of Finance submitted the Report about the Implementation of Central and Local Governments’ Budgets in 2013 and the Draft of Central and Local Governments’ Budgets in 2014 （hereafter Blue Cover Book） to the second plenary of the 12th National People’s Congress. The Report mentioned that the financial income in China was to grow 8% to 13953 billion yuan in 2014， and the budget for national defense was to increase by 12.2% from 88.062 billion to 808.23 billion yuan.
According to the statistical data， the growth rate of China’s national defense budget kept dropping from 2006. From 2005 to 2013 the annual compound growth rate was 13.3%， lower than the 15.1% annual compound growth rate of GDP， and the 19.2% growth rate of financial income. In the past ten years， the increase in the spending on national defense stayed below the one in the financial income except the year 2009. And there were seven years with the defense budget increase slower than nominal GDP growth. But the situation reversed in 2014. The government budget ended the decreasing trend of China’s defense spending， which saw a great rebound as its growth rate went higher than the income increase and nominal GDP growth rate. Li Junzheng says the future defense spending is going to grow at a faster pace and really embraces the compensatory growth trend following the requirements of building the modern military force with Chinese characteristics which were put forward in the third plenary of 18th CPC Congress.
In spite of the apparent growth， the ratio of defense spending against GDP in China， is still far below those of two super military powerhouses Russia and United States， as well as developing countries like India and Brazil. That means China still has a big space for further improvement.
According to the Blue Cover Book， the Chinese army successively launched different kinds of new weapons and some of them have reached the international advanced level， but the defense force of China is still moving from motorization to mechanization and just got initial achievements in the information technologies. They still have the defects of owning less advanced main military devices， smaller in the number and categories of hi-tech weapons， no complete supporting and security devices， low level of mechanization and weak power in the electronic and intelligence warfare.
In addition， in the military power system， the Chinese army still follows the pattern of dividing the military services instead of the joint combat system under the networkcentered environment. The modernization of military force is still far behind the demand of national security and world’s advanced military powerhouses.
In the allocation of defense suspending， personnel expenses， exercise maintenance fees and costs for equipments each take an equal part. The Blue Cover Book says that an increasing part of the personnel expenses are moved to the exercise maintenance and equipments along with the promotion of military reform and layoff of soldiers. The newly-added defense budget gave priority to the weapons and equipments while the exercise fees got increase as well. As for the spend-ing on military services， air force and navy， as well as Second Artillery Corps got a higher share， which had improved the effective demand for military products.
As the Blue Cover Book says， the increase in the defense spending happened against the globalization of China’s economy. Now China is the largest commodity trader in the world. In 2013， its total imports and exports volume went beyond US$4 trillion. This has completely changed China’s safety appeal and benefit constitution. “The safety in the trading routes， the security of overseas Chinese and capital， the peace and stability of benefit-related regions have all become significant concerns of safety and in- terest of China，” says Li Junzheng. This interest predicament became quite prominent when the MH370 went missing. The future Chinese army should not only be able to defend China in the offshore area， but also have the global war power like the U.S. army. They need to have the capability to appear anywhere when they are needed to offer protection of the economic belts of Maritime Silk Road and Silk Way of China.
Product R&D Mostly Target Navy， Air Force and Electronic Warfare
According to Li Zhengjun， in recent years， China’s R&D of military products has found the most needed area.
China is a traditional powerhouse in the land power and is mainly exposed to the threat from seas. With its growing economic power and demand of global transportation security， China must seek to shift into a powerhouse on the sea. In addition， China is surrounded by modern maritime military forces， such as the United States Seventh Fleet， Russia’s Pacific Fleet， Japan’s Maritime Self-defense Force， South Korean navy， Indian navy and so on. Among them， the most powerful force is none other the United States Seventh Fleet.
“From what has been reflected by the launch platform of distance anti-warship cruise missile， we can see that the categories and number of weapons and platforms are growing explosively confronted with the surrounding powerful maritime military forces，” said the 2014 Report about Military and Security Development of China made by the United States.
The report pointed out that China used the distance antiwarship cruise missiles as the “crucial weapons” in the anti- intervention warfares or battles to stop invaders. The army can operate multiple platforms， including Kilo-class， Yuanclass， Song-class and Shang-class conventional submarines and aggressive nuclear submarines， 053B/C， 052D， 051C， Modernclass， 054A， 056 and other types of destroyers and frigates， as well as JH-7， H-6G， Su-30MK2 and other air strike forces against the sea.
As revealed in the Blue Cover Book， China stepped into a new round of warship-building heat in the past few years. The 054A frigate and 056 light frigate were massively put into use. In March 2014， the first 052D destroyer of China’s navy， dubbed No. 172 Kunming， officially began its service. With that China became the only country aside from the United States that have the modern ship-borne battle information and decision system based on the four-direction omni-dimensional phased-array radar， in addition to the advanced vertical launching system with the large aircraft carrier-based fleet as the specific target. This is the core factor of the “Aegis” sys-tem of the United States， a power that Japan and South Korea do not have.
Li Junzheng says that China will keep its world championship in the number of newly-built warships and the No. 2 place in the aggregate tonnage of built warships in the long future according to the number of warships that are already built in the shipyards and the plans for future construction.
However， the Blue Cover Book underlines that the Chinese maritime military force， in spite of the amazing number of newly-built warships， still needs to cross a huge gap to catch up with the U.S. navy.
According to Li Junzheng， the force projection has been restricting the strategic transformation of China’s air force. The domestically made large air carriers have finished their initial flight and are able to massive equipped by the air force in the future.
