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为提高突出危险性预测的准确率和防治技术措施的有效性,根据十三矿13031采面局部突出危险性预测方式,考察钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度q值和钻屑量S值的预测指标应用情况,运用数理统计分析方法预测数据的分布离散情况,拟合点预测指标q、S的新临界值;在此基础上研究q、S与突出预兆动力现象结合的面预测技术,利用Logistic回归分析法,拟合得出了点面结合的预测新指标回归方程,构建了“点”与“面”结合预测指标体系。现场应用表明,点面结合的Logistic回归预测指标能实现突出危险性预测的定量化,在原预测指标体系基础上,提高了预测突出准确率和预测不突出准确率。
In order to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the outstanding risk and the effectiveness of the technical measures for prevention and treatment, according to the prediction method of the local prominence of danger in 13031 mining face of Shisan Mine, the prediction index of the initial gas velocity q value and the drill cuttings S value We use mathematical statistic analysis method to predict the discrete distribution of data and fit the new critical value of point prediction index q and s. Based on this, we study the surface prediction technique combining q and S with the prominent precursor power phenomenon, Method, the fitting of the new index regression equation of the combination of point and surface is obtained, and the forecasting index system combining “dot ” and “surface ” is constructed. The field application shows that the Logistic Regression forecasting point-integrated index can realize the quantification of the predominant risk prediction. Based on the original forecasting index system, the forecasting accuracy rate is improved and the forecast accuracy is not obvious.