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基于技术内生的经济增长模型构建了能源强度演化模型,并采用时空地理加权回归模型来揭示其时空异质演化过程;然后测算局域时空点的能源反弹效应;最后将能源反弹效应分解为强度效应与产出效应,研究强度效应对能源强度演化的影响。研究表明:(1)各因素对能源强度的影响具有显著的时空异质性;(2)产业结构轻型化对能源强度的降低起到促进作用,而技术进步和对外开放程度存在阻碍作用;(3)中国区域能源消费存在时空差异的反弹效应,其中强度效应导致能源强度演化中的技术进步作用被抵消。中国在实现能源经济的可持续发展中,应针对区域和阶段的特殊性制定并实施差异化节能减排政策,同时还需要通过产业政策、价格政策相关政策工具减轻能源反弹效应对能源强度的负面冲击。
Based on the technical endogenous economic growth model, the energy intensity evolution model is constructed, and the space-time geo-weighted regression model is used to reveal its temporal and spatial heterogeneity evolution process; then, the energy rebound effect at the local space-time point is estimated; and finally, the energy rebound effect is decomposed into the intensity Effect and output effect, and study the effect of intensity effect on energy intensity evolution. The results show that: (1) the impact of various factors on energy intensity has significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity; (2) the light industrialization plays a catalytic role in reducing energy intensity, while the progress of technology and the degree of opening to the outside world are impeded; ( 3) China’s regional energy consumption has the rebound effect of space-time difference, in which the effect of technological progress in the evolution of energy intensity caused by the intensity effect is offset. In order to achieve sustainable energy economy development, China should formulate and implement a differentiated energy-saving and emission-reduction policy in light of regional and stage specificities. At the same time, China needs to mitigate the negative impact of energy rebound on energy intensity through industrial policy and price policy-related policy tools Impact.