用“MOS”方法作青岛市10mm 以上降水预报

• 作 者: 滕学崇 林滋新 唐万林
• 机 构: 青岛市气象局,青岛市气象局,青岛市气象局,
• 出 处: 黄渤海海洋
• 发表日期: 1985年02期
• 关键词: 降水预报 MOS mm 数值预报 涡度 客观预报 预报方程 晴雨预报 正涡度平流 垂直速度

前言近年来国内外的预报实践证明:模式输出统计预报方法是制作降水客观预报的一种有效方法.根据资料统计可以看出:青岛地区雨季大部分开始于6月下旬,所以本材料利用1982-1983年6月15日至8月31日的日本传真图数值预报资料来建立“0”、“1”权重回归晴雨“MOS”预报方程,然后根据该方程的预报因子为基础,作青岛市区10mm以上的降水预报.

Preface In recent years, the forecasting practice at home and abroad proves that the method of statistical output forecasting by model output is an effective method for making objective forecast of precipitation.According to the data statistics, it can be seen that most of the rainy season in Qingdao started in late June, The data of the “0 ” and “1” weights of the fax maps of Japan from June 15 to August 31, 1983 were used to establish the regression equation of “MOS ” and then based on the forecasting factor of the equation Basis for the urban area of ​​Qingdao 10mm above precipitation forecast.