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上半年,世界经济复苏仍不均衡,国际石油市场供需基本面相对宽松,原油价格同比回落,布伦特和WTI现货均价分别为107.5美元/桶和94.21美元/桶,同比分别下降5.1%和4.1%。初步分析判断,下半年季节性需求增加、飓风、地缘政治等因素对油价形成支撑,但宽松的供需基本面又将抑制油价的涨幅,预计下半年国际油价将比上半年有所上涨。其中,WTI油价高于上半年,均价为95～105美元/桶;布伦特油价与上半年基本相当,均价为100～110美元/桶。
In the first half of the year, the global economic recovery was still uneven. The supply and demand fundamentals in the international oil market were relatively loose. Crude oil prices dropped year on year. The average spot prices of Brent and WTI were US $ 107.5 / barrel and US $ 94.21 / barrel, down 5.1% 4.1%. Preliminary analysis and judgment, seasonal demand in the second half increased, hurricanes, geopolitics and other factors on the formation of oil prices, but the loose supply and demand fundamentals will curb the oil price increases, the second half of the international oil prices is expected to rise over the first half. Among them, WTI oil prices higher than the first half, the average price of 95 to 105 US dollars / barrel; Brent oil prices were basically the same as the first half, the average price of 100 to 110 US dollars / barrel.