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想必你看过高策地产机构董事长陶红兵的这个伟大预测:5年内北京四环内房价将破10万元。按照我的理解,他说的是四环内平均房价超过10万元/平方米,因为单个楼盘突破10万元的项目早两年就有了。在房价问题上,如果非要谈论预测,最著名的有两个人,一个是任志强,一个是谢国忠。任志强被称为“任赢赢”。举个例子。2009年8月,他接受媒体采访时宣称,不会超过5年,北京房价就将进入5万元时代。如你所知,他的预言3年就提前实现了。去年他还警告今年3月房价会大涨,果然。而谢国忠,我的印象是,至少2004年就开始了唱空中国房地产市场的生涯。比如,2012年12月说“未来5年内房价跌一半”;2013年6月称“房地产泡沫未来数月内破灭,最多不到一年。”预测一次错了不难,难就难在10年如一日地预测,而且基本都错了。我相信,无论当年作为摩根士丹利的经济学家,还是现
Presumably you have seen this great prediction of Tao Hongbing, chairman of Gao Cei Property Agency: Within four years, the price in Beijing’s Fourth Ring Road will break 100,000 yuan. According to my understanding, he said that the average price in the fourth ring over 100,000 yuan / square meter, as a single project exceeded 100000 yuan project as early as two years there. In the issue of housing prices, if we have to talk about prediction, the most famous two people, one is Ren Zhiqiang, one is Xie Guozhong. Ren Zhiqiang known as “Ren won win ”. for example. In August 2009, when he said in an interview with the media, he will not exceed 5 years and Beijing will enter an era of 50,000 yuan. As you know, his prophecy came true three years earlier. Last year, he also warned that housing prices will soar in March this year, and sure enough. And Xie Guozhong, my impression is that at least 2004 began singing empty China real estate market career. For example, in December 2012, “house prices have fallen by half in the next five years.” In June 2013, “the real estate bubble burst in less than a year in the coming months.” It is not difficult to forecast a mistake Hard to predict in 10 years, and basically the wrong. I believe, no matter that year as an economist at Morgan Stanley, or still