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西藏自治区自十一届三中全会以来,在对外贸易方面已经取得了可喜成绩。本文将西藏自治区的对外贸易分为边境贸易和对外贸易剔除边境贸易的部分,即调整贸易,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法进行动态实证研究。结果表明,在短期内,边境贸易和调整贸易均对西藏自治区经济发展存在正向的促进作用,从长期来看,边境贸易对西藏自治区的正向促进作用逐渐减弱,而调整贸易的正向促进作用逐渐增强。
Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Tibet Autonomous Region, the Tibet Autonomous Region has made gratifying achievements in its foreign trade. This article divides the foreign trade in the Tibet Autonomous Region into two parts: the border trade and the foreign trade, excluding the border trade. That is, the trade is adjusted, and the empirical study is conducted by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The results show that in the short term both frontier trade and adjustment trade have a positive impetus to the economic development of the Tibet Autonomous Region. In the long run, the positive role of border trade in the Tibet Autonomous Region has gradually weakened, while the positive promotion of trade adjustment The role of gradually increased.