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利用1958~2010年博斯腾湖流域水文、气象与社会经济资料,采用相关分析法与主成分分析法,分析了博斯腾湖水位动态变化情况及其驱动机理。结果表明,1)博斯腾湖水位从1958年的1 048.0 m下降至2010年的1 045.75 m,净下降2.25 m。水位变化经历了波动式下降(1958~1987年)→急剧上升(1988~2002年)→急剧下降(2003~2010年)的变化过程;2)博斯腾湖水位变化主要是由入湖流量、降水与气温波动等自然因素和耕地面积与人口的增加等人为因素共同作用的结果,特别是入湖流量变化是湖面水位升降的主要影响因子。研究结果能为干早区湖泊水资源的合理利用和生态环境的保护提供科学依据。
Based on the hydrological, meteorological and socio-economic data of the Bosten Lake Basin from 1958 to 2010, the correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to analyze the dynamic changes of the Bosten Lake water level and its driving mechanism. The results show that 1) the water level of Bosten Lake dropped from 1 048.0 m in 1958 to 1 045.75 m in 2010, with a net decrease of 2.25 m. The change of water level experienced the process of fluctuant decline (1958 ~ 1987) → sharp rise (1988 ~ 2002) → sharp decline (2003 ~ 2010); 2) The change of water level in Bosten Lake was mainly caused by the inflow, precipitation and temperature The natural factors such as fluctuation and the increase of cultivated area and population are the result of human factors, especially the change of flow into the lake is the main factor of the water level rise and fall of the lake. The results can provide a scientific basis for the rational utilization of lake water resources and the protection of the ecological environment in dry areas.