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林业保险是以林木生长期间因灾害事故造成的林木价值或营林生产费用损失为标的的保险。林业保险增加了林业经营者的融资渠道,降低了林农经营林业的风险。近年来,林业保险逐步发展。本文利用福建省、江西省实地调研数据,采用偏最小二乘回归(PLS)方法对林业保险保费影响因素进行分析,解决普通最小二乘法、普通Logistic回归分析、主成分分析等统计方法存在的多重相关性、信息解释性差等问题。分析表明,林农采取的风险应对措施、受灾面积、林业经济损失是林农所能接受的每亩最高保费的显著影响因素,林农所在地区自然灾害发生的频率对其也有一定影响,而林农对林业保险的了解程度对其影响不大。
Forestry insurance is based on the loss of forest value or forest production costs caused by a disaster accident during forest growth. Forestry insurance increases the financing channels for forestry managers and reduces the risk of forest farmers operating forestry. In recent years, forestry insurance has been gradually developed. In this paper, the field survey data of Fujian and Jiangxi provinces are used to analyze the influencing factors of forestry insurance premiums by PLS (Partial Least Squares Regression) method to solve the problems of multiple least mean square method, ordinary logistic regression analysis and principal component analysis Relevance, poor interpretation of information and other issues. The analysis shows that the risk coping measures, affected area and forestry economic loss are the significant influencing factors for forest farmers’ maximum premium per acre. The frequency of natural disasters in forest areas also has some impact on them, The level of understanding has little effect on it.