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选取1992—2008年北京市主要环境污染物排放量作为北京市的环境污染水平表征指标,以人均GDP表示经济发展水平,通过分析北京市主要环境污染物的排放量与人均GDP之间的关系并建立计量模型,以此探究北京市的经济发展对与环境质量的影响。研究表明,北京市1992—2008年的人均GDP和主要污染物排放量之间的关系可以用EKC曲线进行描述,而且目前的北京部分污染物如工业废水、工业COD、石油类、工业烟尘等的排放量随着人均GDP的增加呈显著下降的趋势,表明现在主要污染物的排放量均已越过拐点,北京市进入经济与环境协调发展的阶段。分析其原因,主要得益于研究时段内北京市产业结构大力调整、环境污染治理投资增加和严格的环境管理政策等多项措施的综合实施。基于过去的经验分析,北京市在发展经济的同时,应该进一步深化调整产业结构,减少工业生产污染物排放并加强环境政策的制定和实施力度,才能保证经济进一步发展的同时使环境得到持续改善。
The main environmental pollutants emission in Beijing from 1992 to 2008 were selected as the indicators of environmental pollution in Beijing. The per capita GDP was used to represent the level of economic development. By analyzing the relationship between the emission of major environmental pollutants and GDP per capita in Beijing, Establish econometric model, in order to explore the impact of economic development in Beijing on the quality of the environment. The study shows that the relationship between per capita GDP and major pollutant emissions in Beijing from 1992 to 2008 can be described by EKC curve. At present, some pollutants in Beijing such as industrial wastewater, industrial COD, petroleum, industrial soot, etc. Emissions have shown a significant downward trend with the increase of per capita GDP, indicating that the emissions of major pollutants have now crossed the inflection point and Beijing has entered a stage of coordinated development of economy and environment. Analysis of the reasons is mainly due to the comprehensive implementation of a number of measures such as the adjustment of industrial structure in Beijing during the research period, the increased investment in environmental pollution control and stringent environmental management policies. Based on past experience, while economic development in Beijing, we should further deepen the readjustment of the industrial structure, reduce the emission of pollutants from industrial production and strengthen the formulation and implementation of environmental policies so that the economy will be further developed and the environment will be continuously improved.