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发达地区畜牧业面源污染的改善是否是污染转移形成的暂时现象?地区间环境规制差异是否影响到畜产品的地区间贸易流向?出口地区是否成为进口地区的“污染天堂?”本文以猪肉为例,在拓展的引力模型基础上增加环境规制变量,检验环境规制是否影响地区的畜产品流通,进而验证中国畜牧业生产中是否存在“污染天堂”效应。研究结果证实进口地区存在显著的污染天堂效应,而出口地区的污染天堂假说并未得到支持。这表明进口地区猪肉生产因环境规制处于相对劣势,在比较优势的引导下生猪生产会进一步向出口地区集中。因此,对出口地区而言,如果环境规制力度不够,生产的集中将使得环境问题更加突出;同时,生产规模的扩大可能会带来规模经济,环境规制带来的成本会得到分摊,从而形成可持续的比较优势。
Whether the improvement of non-point source pollution of livestock husbandry in developed areas is a temporary phenomenon of pollution transfer? Whether the differences in environmental regulation between regions affect the trade flow between regions of livestock products? Whether the export regions become the “paradise of pollution” in imported regions? Pork, for example, will add environmental regulatory variables based on the expanded gravitation model to test whether environmental regulation will affect the circulation of livestock products in the region and further verify the existence of the “pollution paradise” effect in China’s livestock husbandry. The results of the study confirm that there is a significant paradoxical effect of pollution in imported areas, while the haze of pollution paradigm in export areas is not supported. This shows that the pork production in the importing area is at a relative disadvantage due to environmental regulation. Under comparative advantage, the pig production will be further concentrated in the export areas. Therefore, for the export areas, if the environmental regulation is not enough, the concentration of production will make the environmental problems more prominent. At the same time, the expansion of the production scale may bring economies of scale and the costs of environmental regulation will be apportioned to form a Sustained comparative advantage.