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本文采用“汶川地震”灾区15个县市区,地震前后分别各1年,近40万房地产交易的“全样本”交易数据,从微观层面,系统地研究了地震对灾区房地产市场产生的影响。结果我们发现:地震造成了灾区住房平均价值约4.6%水平的下降。通过观测地震前后楼层的价格差异以及差异的变化趋势,我们发现,在地震后1年的时间内,不同楼层的价格均呈现显著的反转趋势,具体表现在:高层住房价格先下降而后上升,低层住房价格(特别是别墅)先大幅上升而后快速地下降。进而,我们得出房地产市场与资本市场一样,存在“反应过度”的现象。这是迄今为止,首次从行为经济学的角度来验证此种现象在房地产市场中的存在。
In this paper, “Wenchuan Earthquake” disaster area 15 counties and cities, before and after the earthquake, respectively, one year, nearly 400,000 real estate transactions “full sample ” transaction data from the micro level, the systemically studied the earthquake real estate market The impact of. As a result, we found that the earthquake caused a decrease of about 4.6% of the average value of houses in the affected areas. By observing the price difference of the floors before and after the earthquake and the changing trend of the differences, we find that the prices of different floors all showed a significant reversal trend within one year after the earthquake, in particular: the prices of high-rise houses first decreased and then rose, Low-rise housing prices (especially villas) rose sharply and then dropped rapidly. Furthermore, we conclude that the real estate market, like the capital market, has the phenomenon of “overreaction.” This is the first time to verify the existence of this phenomenon in the real estate market from the perspective of behavioral economics.