论文部分内容阅读
冲击地压态势评估是煤矿安全监测预警领域的热点及难题之一。本文以微震、电磁辐射及声发射等实时监测数据为基础,将态势评估理论引入冲击地压预测领域,建立了基于监测系统日志审计与实时修正算法相结合的冲击态势评估模型,通过改进D-S证据理论提出一种冲击地压态势量化方法。利用该方法计算得到连续时段的冲击地压态势值后,分别基于一阶灰色模型GM(1,1)及ARMA模型对冲击地压态势值进行预测并对比分析。实例结果及相关分析表明,所提冲击地压态势预测方法合理有效,能动态地反映冲击地压的发展趋势。
Rockburst situation assessment is one of the hotspots and problems in the field of mine safety monitoring and early warning. Based on the real-time monitoring data such as microseism, electromagnetic radiation and acoustic emission, this paper introduces the situation assessment theory into the field of rock burst prediction, and establishes the impact situation evaluation model based on the combination of log audit and real-time correction algorithm. By improving DS evidence Theory puts forward a method of quantifying the impact of ground pressure. By using this method, the potential values of rock burst under continuous time are calculated. Based on the first-order gray model GM (1,1) and the ARMA model, the rock burst values are predicted and compared. The results of the examples and the correlation analysis show that the proposed method for predicting the ground pressure is reasonable and effective, which can dynamically reflect the development trend of rockburst.