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利用统计相关回归计算作为害虫发生期的予测,如果选用材料恰当,可以达到相当准确的效果,本文选用湖北省汉阳县测报站1961—1970年各年二化螟越冬代发蛾始盛期和3月份4月份各旬的平均温度的相关性,得出二化螟越各代发蛾始盛期和3月上旬平均温度的相关系数为—0.7713,相关极为显著,与3月上、中、下旬及4四上,中旬五旬平均温度的平均数的相关系数为—0.7637,相关显著,与其余各旬平均温度相关不显著。因此本文采用该县二化螟越冬代发蛾始盛期和3月上旬平均温度的相关性,进一步求出其直线回归式为:
Using the statistical correlation regression calculation as the prediction of the pest occurrence period, if the selection of materials is appropriate, we can achieve quite accurate results. In this paper, we selected the initial stage of the overwintering moth in the Hanyang County, Hubei Province from 1961 to 1970 The correlation coefficient between the average temperature in April and March of each month was obtained. The correlation coefficient between the initial temperature of the adult stem moth and the average temperature in early March was -0.7713. The correlation coefficient was extremely significant. Compared with the average temperature in March, The correlation coefficient of the average of the average temperature at the middle and late 1950s was -0.7637 in the second and fourth quarters. The correlation was significant, and the correlation was not significant with the average temperature in the other ten quarters. Therefore, in this paper, the incidence of adult rice stem borer overwintering moth in early spring and early March the average correlation between the average temperature, and further find its linear regression equation is: