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通过构建一个“政府—煤电产业—出口产业”三阶段动态博弈模型,本文考察经济开放程度如何经由(下游)出口产业影响(上游)煤电产业的民营化选择和政府对煤电产业的税费制度安排。研究发现:第一,出于社会福利最大化考虑的政府在多数情况下会选择征税制度安排,而收费制度安排只可能在本国向外国出口水平适中,且外国向本国出口水平较低的时候出现;第二,煤电产业出于自身利润考虑的理想税费制度安排与政府基于社会福利最大化考虑的最优税费制度安排很可能是不一致的;第三,如果外国向本国出口偏低而本国向外国出口水平适中或者较高,在博弈均衡结果中消费者剩余会下降;第四,如果本国向外国出口水平居中、外国向本国出口水平偏低,或者本国向外国出口水平偏低(或者偏高)、外国向本国出口水平居中以上,在博弈均衡结果中煤电产业都可能选择过民营化战略;第五,无论政府选择征税制度安排还是收费制度安排,政府在博弈均衡中都处在一种支出状态,表明政府对煤电产业实际上处于补贴状态。
By constructing a three-stage dynamic game model of “government-coal power industry-export industry”, this paper examines how the degree of economic openness affects the upstream (privatization) choice of the coal power industry via the (downstream) export industries and the government’s choice of the coal power industry Tax system arrangements. The findings are as follows: Firstly, the government considering the maximization of social welfare will choose the taxation system arrangement in most cases, and the charging system arrangement may only be possible when the domestic export level is moderate and the foreign export level to the country is low Second, the ideal tax system for self-profits of the coal-fired power industry is likely to be inconsistent with the optimal tax-cost system that the government considers based on the maximization of social welfare. Third, if the foreign countries export to their own countries is low While the level of domestic exports to foreign countries is moderate or high, consumer surplus will decline in the game equilibrium result. Fourth, if the level of domestic exports to foreign countries is moderate, the level of foreign exports to domestic countries is low or the level of domestic exports to foreign countries is low Or higher), the export of foreign countries to their home above the middle of the game equilibrium results in the coal industry may have opted for privatization strategy; Fifth, regardless of the government choice of tax system or fee system arrangements, the government in the game equilibrium are In a state of expenditure, indicating that the government actually subsidized state of coal industry.