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Recently， the internal depre- ciation and external appreciation of RMB have raised the concerns of many people.
People are confused： Is RMB appreciating？ Then why are the things more expensive than before. If the RMB is depreciating， why does one U.S. dollar can be exchanged into less RMB than before？
According to the data， before the RMB exchange rate system reform which was initiated on July 21， 2005， the median rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar was 8.2765：1. Now， the rate was 6.1450：1.
“Eight years ago， one U.S. dollar can be exchanged into 8.28 yuan， or 1，000 yuan equaled US$120.77. In the past eight years， the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 34%. Now， Chinese people can use their RMB to swap for more U.S. dollars. The rise of exchange rate has made RMB more and more valuable，” says Prof. Lan Jiping at the Capital University of Economics and Trade.
The basic reason for the movement of RMB exchange rate was none other than the big changes in the Chinese economic situation. Yan Ansheng， specialist advisor of Shenzhen Urban Seminar， says that China used to have very few exported commodities because of its low productivity. And it needed to import a lot of things to meet the largescale demand of production and consumption. Therefore， no one wanted to hold RMB at that time.
But presently， China is the second largest economy in the world and one of the biggest exporters in the world. Meanwhile， the improvement and betterment of China’s investment circumstance made a lot of international capital flow into China. Under that condition， RMB is needed to convert into a huge volume of foreign exchanges brought by the export or the grand amount of foreign capital flowing into China. This led to the situation where foreign capital massively pursues the RMB.
Yan Ansheng says that the exchange rate of RMB， according to the market rule， will keep surging in the international swap as long as the supply of RMB cannot meet the demand. That means the trend of RMB’s appreciation in the overseas market will not be changed as long as China keeps increasing its export， foreign exchange reserves and receives more foreign investment.
But for people living in China， the feeling that RMB is less and less valuable is unmistakable. Lan Jiping exemplifies that a kind of rice which was priced at 3.8 yuan per kilogram in 2005 now is sold at 6.6 yuan per kilogram. The price increased 9.2% in eight years. The inflation has shrunken the value of 1，000 yuan in 2010 to the one of 576 yuan in 2013. The internal depreciation is very easy to see. “The coexistence of internal depreciation and external appreciation of a currency is a common thing in the emerging countries，” says Liu Yuhui， Director of the Key Financial Lab at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This is especially so when some economies having chosen the less flexible exchange rate system， which somewhat relates their currencies’ value with the U.S. dollar.
Such a system could allow the economies to accumulate a great amount of foreign exchange reserves through trade surplus and bring in the foreign capital in a short while. However， when the domestic economy gradually heats up or even gets overheated， the increasing price of commodities and the inflation are going to show up.
According to Lan Jiping， China’s economic growth is more dependent on the investment and the dramatically increasing credit delivery. These caused the massive oversupply of currency in China. By the end of the first quarter of 2013， the supply of M2 had already exceeded RMB 100 trillion. In comparison， the figure was just 16 trillion at the beginning of 2002. The money supply increased by 500% in ten years and now the monetary aggregates in China is more than twice of its GDP.
In another word， China’s GDP is only one third of that of the U.S.， but its money supply is 1.5 times as high as that of the U.S. and takes the champion among all countries in the world.
“If the assets bubble and increasing prices keep being there， the economic cost is going to rise， which will have negative influence over the increase in trade and cut down the power of getting external demand. All these might hinder the economic growth and lower the GDP growth rate，” Liu Yuhui says.
In order to stay tuned with the goal of economic growth， the easiest and most direct way the Chinese government is going to take is to increase the investment in the infrastructure and the production capacity of state-owned enterprises and facilities. “Such a situation can directly reduce the balance between the domestic deposits and investment. In the national economic account， the foreign trade surplus is in a tripartite balance with the deposits and investment. In another word， the expansion of investment can reduce the external balance of payments， which will damage the economic competitiveness and apply new stress on the economic development.
“If the previous high-speed economic growth rate needs to be maintained， the further expansion of investment is indispensable. According to the economic rules， the increasing investment will lead to the great reduction of the returns on investment. Correspondingly， the turnover rate of assets is going down. So are the efficiency of using currencies and the circulation of money. The rotation of credit will massively turn invalid step by step，” Liu Yuhui says.
If that really happens， the government could likely do nothing but increase the money supply to keep the economic growth through higher credit expansion.
Therefore， the current extensive economic growth pattern which was formed from the excessive reliance on investment must be changed，” says Liu Yuhui. “We must make clear of the potential growth power of China’s economy and the returns on capital， based on we fix reasonable and scientific goal of economic growth rate.”
Just like Chinese president Xi Jinping said， the change of economic growth method and the economic structure are the steps that we must take. The growth rate must be kept within a reasonable range， or else the resources， capital and market are under great stress， which will slow down the reform process.
People are confused： Is RMB appreciating？ Then why are the things more expensive than before. If the RMB is depreciating， why does one U.S. dollar can be exchanged into less RMB than before？
According to the data， before the RMB exchange rate system reform which was initiated on July 21， 2005， the median rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar was 8.2765：1. Now， the rate was 6.1450：1.
“Eight years ago， one U.S. dollar can be exchanged into 8.28 yuan， or 1，000 yuan equaled US$120.77. In the past eight years， the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 34%. Now， Chinese people can use their RMB to swap for more U.S. dollars. The rise of exchange rate has made RMB more and more valuable，” says Prof. Lan Jiping at the Capital University of Economics and Trade.
The basic reason for the movement of RMB exchange rate was none other than the big changes in the Chinese economic situation. Yan Ansheng， specialist advisor of Shenzhen Urban Seminar， says that China used to have very few exported commodities because of its low productivity. And it needed to import a lot of things to meet the largescale demand of production and consumption. Therefore， no one wanted to hold RMB at that time.
But presently， China is the second largest economy in the world and one of the biggest exporters in the world. Meanwhile， the improvement and betterment of China’s investment circumstance made a lot of international capital flow into China. Under that condition， RMB is needed to convert into a huge volume of foreign exchanges brought by the export or the grand amount of foreign capital flowing into China. This led to the situation where foreign capital massively pursues the RMB.
Yan Ansheng says that the exchange rate of RMB， according to the market rule， will keep surging in the international swap as long as the supply of RMB cannot meet the demand. That means the trend of RMB’s appreciation in the overseas market will not be changed as long as China keeps increasing its export， foreign exchange reserves and receives more foreign investment.
But for people living in China， the feeling that RMB is less and less valuable is unmistakable. Lan Jiping exemplifies that a kind of rice which was priced at 3.8 yuan per kilogram in 2005 now is sold at 6.6 yuan per kilogram. The price increased 9.2% in eight years. The inflation has shrunken the value of 1，000 yuan in 2010 to the one of 576 yuan in 2013. The internal depreciation is very easy to see. “The coexistence of internal depreciation and external appreciation of a currency is a common thing in the emerging countries，” says Liu Yuhui， Director of the Key Financial Lab at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This is especially so when some economies having chosen the less flexible exchange rate system， which somewhat relates their currencies’ value with the U.S. dollar.
Such a system could allow the economies to accumulate a great amount of foreign exchange reserves through trade surplus and bring in the foreign capital in a short while. However， when the domestic economy gradually heats up or even gets overheated， the increasing price of commodities and the inflation are going to show up.
According to Lan Jiping， China’s economic growth is more dependent on the investment and the dramatically increasing credit delivery. These caused the massive oversupply of currency in China. By the end of the first quarter of 2013， the supply of M2 had already exceeded RMB 100 trillion. In comparison， the figure was just 16 trillion at the beginning of 2002. The money supply increased by 500% in ten years and now the monetary aggregates in China is more than twice of its GDP.
In another word， China’s GDP is only one third of that of the U.S.， but its money supply is 1.5 times as high as that of the U.S. and takes the champion among all countries in the world.
“If the assets bubble and increasing prices keep being there， the economic cost is going to rise， which will have negative influence over the increase in trade and cut down the power of getting external demand. All these might hinder the economic growth and lower the GDP growth rate，” Liu Yuhui says.
In order to stay tuned with the goal of economic growth， the easiest and most direct way the Chinese government is going to take is to increase the investment in the infrastructure and the production capacity of state-owned enterprises and facilities. “Such a situation can directly reduce the balance between the domestic deposits and investment. In the national economic account， the foreign trade surplus is in a tripartite balance with the deposits and investment. In another word， the expansion of investment can reduce the external balance of payments， which will damage the economic competitiveness and apply new stress on the economic development.
“If the previous high-speed economic growth rate needs to be maintained， the further expansion of investment is indispensable. According to the economic rules， the increasing investment will lead to the great reduction of the returns on investment. Correspondingly， the turnover rate of assets is going down. So are the efficiency of using currencies and the circulation of money. The rotation of credit will massively turn invalid step by step，” Liu Yuhui says.
If that really happens， the government could likely do nothing but increase the money supply to keep the economic growth through higher credit expansion.
Therefore， the current extensive economic growth pattern which was formed from the excessive reliance on investment must be changed，” says Liu Yuhui. “We must make clear of the potential growth power of China’s economy and the returns on capital， based on we fix reasonable and scientific goal of economic growth rate.”
Just like Chinese president Xi Jinping said， the change of economic growth method and the economic structure are the steps that we must take. The growth rate must be kept within a reasonable range， or else the resources， capital and market are under great stress， which will slow down the reform process.