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美国《地震情报通报》1977年11—12月第9卷6期刊登了美国地质调查局沃德(Peter L.Ward)的文章《地震预报:一个全国计划的远景》,其中《中国人的预报》一节评述了中国地震预报的最大成功(海城地震)、明显失败(唐山地震)及虚报造成的混乱。在《美国的预报》一节中,作者例举了近年来美国所作的几次成功的地震预报,如阿加维尔预报的兰山湖地震;惠特柯姆预报的加州尤凯帕(Yucaipa)地震;史蒂文森和达万尼预报的乔卡锡湖(LakeJocassee)地震;希利预报的霍利斯特地震;巴夫及其同事们预报的圣阿塞附近地震。还报道了美国地质调查局科学家对南加州帕姆代尔附近地壳上升150—250毫米所进行的研究,并担心这种现象是否与未来大震有直接关系?文章的另外几节是:《地震危险减缓计划》、《确定多震区》、《地震前兆》、《震源模式》和《概要》,摘译如下:
US Seismological Information Bulletin November-December 1977, Volume 9, Issue 6, published an article by the US Geological Survey, Peter L. Ward, “Earthquake Prediction: A Vision for a National Plan,” in which the “Chinese Prediction ”A section commented on the greatest success of China’s earthquake prediction (Haicheng earthquake), the apparent failure (Tangshan earthquake) and confusion caused by false reports. In the “US Forecast” section, the authors give examples of several successful earthquakes the United States made in recent years, such as the Lanshan Lake earthquake forecast by Agaveville; Whitcote’s Yucaipa, California, Earthquakes; the Stevenson and Dwanee forecasts of the LakeJocassee earthquake; the Hollister earthquake predicted by Healy; and the earthquake near Saint Arsey predicted by Pav and colleagues. We also report on a study by the US Geological Survey scientists about the 150-250 mm crustal increase in the vicinity of Palmdale, Southern California, and whether this phenomenon is directly related to future earthquakes. The other sections of the paper are: “Earthquakes Hazard Mitigation Plan, ”“ Determining Multi-Earthquakes, ”“ Earthquake Precursors, ”“ Source Patterns, ”and“ Summary, ”as follows: