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考察直接的贸易效应,既是理清抵货运动经济效应的起点,又能从一个侧面评论中国人民反帝爱国运动的成效,还有助于揭示特定时期中国民族工业得以发展的部分原因。本文旨在考察近代中国半殖民地半封建社会的抵货运动对洋货进口是否产生了显著的抑制作用。以1927年爆发的大规模抵制日货运动为案例,使用1926年至1928年中国从17个贸易伙伴细分商品的进口数据,运用倍差法进行定量分析,本文稳健地证实了此次抵货运动对日本产品输入中国产生了显著的抑制作用,并识别出对纺织品的抑制效应大于其他行业产品,对初级产品的抑制效应大于工业制成品。
Examining the direct trade effects not only serves as a starting point for sorting out the economic effects of the countervailing movement, but also reviews the effectiveness of the Chinese people’s anti-imperialist and patriotic movement from one side and helps to reveal some of the reasons for the development of the Chinese national industry in a given period. This article aims to examine whether the resistance movement in modern semi-colonial and semi-feudal China had a significant inhibitory effect on the import of foreign goods. Taking the mass boycott of Japanese goods movement that broke out in 1927 as a case, this article uses the double-difference method for the quantitative analysis of the import data of China from 17 trading partners from 1926 to 1928, The movement had a significant inhibitory effect on the importation of Japanese products into China and identified that the inhibitory effect on textiles was greater than that of other industries and the inhibitory effect on primary products was greater than that of manufactured products.