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“十一五”期间我国经济区域版图划分将发生变化,长三角、京津冀、成渝以及东北老工业基地成为区域规划的重点,替代了过去长三角、珠三角、西部和东北的划分。在这些区域中,京津冀地区包含两个直辖市,经济发展有相当基础。但经济规模和影响力则相对落后。“十一五”规划,将京津冀地区的发展提到了战略高度,将有可能给该地区的经济增长提供一个起飞的良机,区内相关上市公司的投资机会酝酿其中。过去京津地区发展的主要问题是两地经济竞争多于合作,我们认为政策环境的变化可能带来的机会首先是促进了京津战略合作和一体化发展,两地间将透过更加发达的公路、铁路交通网建立紧密联系,分工合作,充分发挥北京地区的辐射力,促进区域协调发展。其次是区域经济向沿海经济发展,滨海开发区发展被提到了战略高度,可能为滨海新区内企业发展带来新的机遇。天津将以滨海新区为主形成与港口、物流、石化等相关产业,以港口和贸易优势带动发展。交通基础设施、物流服务业、节能和环保产业以及房地产业将可能在经济起飞的过程中首先受益。当然,我们在乐观设想的同时,必须清醒的意识到具体政策的出台仍需要时间,力度与协调的结果究竟如何还没有一个比较清晰的答案。对具体公司的影响就更仅是假设而已。依据我们对宏观环境改善可能惠及的行业和公司的判断,我们挑选了天津港、华北高速、中储股份、津滨发展、天房发展、海油工程等相关公司进行讨论。其中我们认为最具投资价值的公司是海油工程和华北高速。
During the “Eleventh Five-year Plan” period, the division of the economic territory of our country will change. The Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Chengdu-Chongqing Region and the northeast old industrial base have become the focus of regional planning, replacing the past division of Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, West China and Northeast China. Among these areas, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region contains two municipalities directly under the Central Government, and economic development has a fairly good foundation. However, its economic size and influence are relatively backward. The Eleventh Five-Year Plan, which brought the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to a strategic level, will provide a good opportunity for the region’s economic growth to take off. The investment opportunities of the relevant listed companies in the region are brewing. In the past, the major issue for the development of the Beijing-Tianjin region was that economic cooperation between the two places was more than cooperation. In our opinion, the opportunities brought about by the changes in the policy environment are, first of all, promoting the strategic cooperation and integrated development between Beijing and Tianjin. Through the more developed Roads and rail transport networks to establish close contact and division of labor cooperation, give full play to the radiation in Beijing, and promote the coordinated development of the region. The second is the development of the coastal economy by the regional economy. The development of the Binhai Development Zone is mentioned at a strategic level, which may bring new opportunities for the development of enterprises in Binhai New Area. Tianjin will be mainly formed with the Binhai New Area and ports, logistics, petrochemical and other related industries, with the port and trade advantages to promote development. Transport infrastructure, logistics services, energy saving and environmental protection industries as well as real estate will probably benefit first in the economic take-off. Of course, while we are optimistic, we must clearly understand that it still takes time for the promulgation of specific policies and there is no clear answer as to the results of the efforts and coordination. The impact on specific companies is even more hypothetical. Based on our judgment on industries and companies that may benefit the improvement of the macro environment, we have selected the relevant companies such as Tianjin Port, Huabei Expressway, China Chudian, Jinbin Development, Tianfang Development and COOEC for discussion. Which we think the most investment value of the company is COOEC and North China Expressway.