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本文利用2003—2008年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究分析师本地优势和信息披露对其预测准确性的影响,发现两者对分析师预测准确性均有显著影响。研究结论表明,我国分析师行业存在本地优势现象,即与公司在同地的分析师其盈余预测更准确;研究还发现公司信息披露质量越高,分析师预测准确性越高;同时,考察这两个因素对分析师预测准确性的影响,发现两者为互补关系,即两者共同作用,提高分析师盈余预测的准确性。这表明分析师进行盈余预测时,不仅依赖公司披露的公共信息,还依赖自身凭借本地优势获取的私有信息。本文的结论加深了我们对分析师行为的理解,而对分析师行为的充分了解可以帮助投资者更好地理解分析师预测误差,从而有助于增强证券市场的有效性,促进资源合理配置。
Using the data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2008, this paper studies the influence of local advantages and information disclosure of analysts on its forecast accuracy, and finds that both of them have a significant impact on the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. The conclusion of the study shows that there is a local advantage in China’s analyst industry, that is, the earnings forecasts of analysts in the same place with the company are more accurate. The study also finds that the higher the quality of information disclosure of a company, the higher the analyst’s forecast accuracy. At the same time, The influence of the two factors on the accuracy of the analysts’ forecasts shows that the two are complementary, that is, they work together to improve the accuracy of the analyst’s earnings forecast. This shows that when analysts make earnings forecasts, they rely not only on public information disclosed by the company, but also on proprietary information they gain by virtue of their local advantages. Our conclusion deepens our understanding of analyst behavior, and a full understanding of analyst behavior can help investors better understand analysts’ forecasting errors, thus helping to enhance the effectiveness of the securities market and promote the rational allocation of resources.