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经济的周期性波动主要来源于总需求的变动,但由于发展模式和发展阶段的独特性,此次我国经济长达6年的增速回落,并不仅是由总需求的周期性波动造成,而主要是供给端趋势性变化带来的经济结构调整。要素成本提高、技术进步速率下降、资源在产业链上的错配,意味着当前我国经济面临的主要是结构性问题而不是周期性问题。在经历一段时间调整后,我国经济将沿L型路径过渡到相对平缓的中高速增长阶段。
The cyclical fluctuations in economy mainly come from the changes in aggregate demand. However, due to the uniqueness of the development model and development stage, the economic growth of 6 years in our country has not been slowed down by cyclical fluctuations in aggregate demand. However, Mainly supply-side changes in the trend of economic restructuring. The increase in factor costs, the decline in the rate of technological progress, and the misallocation of resources in the industrial chain mean that the current economic problems in our country are mainly structural ones rather than cyclical ones. After a period of adjustment, our economy will move along the L-shaped path to a relatively moderate high-speed growth stage.