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近年来,我国外汇储备的迅速增长对物价波动产生了重要影响。二者的变动趋势存在很大的一致性:物价水平与外汇储备、货币供应量以及GDP之间存在长期的稳定关系,但外汇储备对物价水平的长期弹性系数偏小;外汇储备与物价水平的短期呈正相关关系,其短期弹性系数较大,且对物价水平的短期影响要大于长期影响;长期内外汇储备增长对物价有正负交替的冲击效应,并随时间的变化成一定的规律性与稳定性;外汇储备对物价水平的直接影响程度较低,间接影响程度较高。
In recent years, the rapid growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves has had an important impact on price fluctuations. There is great consistency between the two trends: there is a long-term stable relationship between the price level and foreign exchange reserves, money supply and GDP, but the long-term elasticity of foreign exchange reserves to the price level is small; the foreign exchange reserves and the price level Term short-term positive correlation, the short-term elasticity coefficient is larger, and the short-term impact on the price level than the long-term impact; long-term foreign exchange reserves growth on the price of alternating positive and negative impact and change over time into a certain regularity and Stability; the direct impact of foreign exchange reserves on the price level is low, the degree of indirect impact is higher.