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本文以小麦、大米、玉米和大豆为样本 ,每个品种分别选取了南方和北方两个批发市 场 ,运用共聚合法、Granger -Causality因果分析法和市场联系指数法 (IMC)对国内主要 粮食批发市场和国际市场的内在联系进行了分析 ,主要结论为 :第一 ,国内外粮食市场间 存在长期的内在的联系 ;第二 ,大米和大豆市场以及南方小麦市场均受国际市场价格的影 响 ,玉米市场和北方小麦市场的变化则领先于国际市场 ;第三 ,南方大豆和大米市场以及 南北方玉米市场与国际市场联系程度最大 ,南方小麦批发市场与国际市场联系程度最小 ; 最后 ,本文建议政府应将南方作为粮食市场和贸易调节的重点 ,并分品种提出了相应的政 策建议
In this paper, wheat, rice, corn and soybean were selected as samples. Two wholesale markets in the south and north of China were selected for each variety. Copolymerization, Granger-Causality Causality Analysis and Market Contact Index (IMC) The main conclusions are: first, there is a long-term intrinsic relationship between grain markets both at home and abroad; secondly, the market of rice and soybean and the market of wheat in the south are influenced by the international market price; and the corn market And the northern wheat market is ahead of the international market. Thirdly, the southern soybean market and the north-south corn market have the most contact with the international market. The southern wheat wholesale market has the least contact with the international market. Finally, this article suggests that the government should As the focus of grain market and trade regulation, the southern part put forward corresponding policy suggestions