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随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络与传统媒体一起成为社会事故及其风险传播的主要途径。在这种媒介化的社会语境下,舆论风险已成为日益突出的社会风险问题,逐渐受到学者的关注和社会的重视。本文从舆论风险的基本概念入手,探讨舆论风险的基本内涵和特点,并分别对传统媒体、网络媒体和网络社区舆论风险的形成和干预路径进行分析。随后,利用系统动力学理论,分析事故风险、社会舆论和政府干预的相互影响关系,构建社会舆论形成及干预的动力学模型,并利用Stella软件对模型进行仿真分析和可视化处理。最后,本文以宁波PX项目为例,对社会舆论的系统动力学模型进行实证分析。
With the advent of the Web2.0 era, the Internet and traditional media have become the main means of social accidents and their spread of risks. In this mediaized social context, the public opinion risk has become an increasingly prominent social risk issue, which is gradually receiving the attention of scholars and the society. This article starts with the basic concept of public opinion risk, discusses the basic connotation and characteristics of public opinion risk, and separately analyzes the forming and intervention path of public opinion risk of traditional media, online media and online community. Then, using system dynamics theory, the interaction risk between accident risk, public opinion and government intervention was analyzed to build a dynamic model of social public opinion formation and intervention. The Stella software was used to simulate and visualize the model. Finally, this paper takes Ningbo PX project as an example to make an empirical analysis of the system dynamics model of public opinion.