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根据北京师范大学１９９１～１９９５年学生ＨＢｓＡｇ阳性率，利用灰色模型和移动平均法，给出预报男生和女生阳性率的预报模型，对１９９６年学生阳性率进行预测，预报男生阳性率的相对误差为６．７８％，女生为１５．３７％。
According to the HBsAg positive rate of students in Beijing Normal University from 1991 to 1995, the gray model and the moving average method were used to predict the positive rate of male and female students. The prediction of the positive rate of male students in 1996 and the relative error of male positive rate 6.78%, girls 15.37%.