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本文以1990—2013年中国煤炭行业的百万吨死亡率及税负等数据作为计量分析的基础,主要研究了煤炭行业税收负担对中国煤矿安全水平的影响。首先,对上述1990—2013年的数据进行静态的多元回归分析,回归结果表明:煤炭行业百万吨死亡率对其税收负担的偏弹性为-8.086%。其次,运用向量自回归模型对煤炭行业税收负担与煤矿百万吨死亡率两者的相关关系做动态响应分析,其计量结果进一步证实,我国现行的煤矿行业高税收负担对煤矿行业安全水平的正向促进作用,但这种正向促进作用却呈现出逐渐减弱的趋势,这在一定程度上反映单纯地提高煤炭行业税负并不能有效地提高煤矿安全水平。因此,需要对我国煤矿行业的税制进行体制层面的考量,同时本文也为正在进行的煤炭资源税改革提供一定的实证基础。最后,将着眼于两者的实证关系给出煤炭行业税收政策在安全投入、资源税计征方式及增值税地点等方面的建议。
Based on the data of one million tons of deaths and tax burden in China’s coal industry from 1990 to 2013, this paper mainly studies the impact of the tax burden of the coal industry on the safety level of coal mines in China. First of all, based on the static multiple regression analysis of the data from 1990 to 2013, the regression results show that the pro-elasticity of the million-ton mortality in the coal industry to its tax burden is -8.086%. Secondly, using the vector autoregression model to make a dynamic response analysis on the tax burden of the coal industry and the one million tons of coal mines, the measurement results further confirm that the current high tax burden of coal industry in our country is positive However, this positive promotion has shown a gradual downward trend, which to some extent reflects that simply raising the tax burden on the coal industry can not effectively raise the level of coal mine safety. Therefore, it is necessary to make an institutional consideration on the tax system of China’s coal mining industry. At the same time, this article also provides some empirical evidence for the ongoing reform of the coal resource tax. Finally, focusing on the empirical relationship between the two, this paper will give some advice on the coal industry tax policy in terms of safety input, resource tax collection method and VAT location.