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金融危机前,中国纸产品出口呈快速增长趋势。结合恒定市场份额模型(CMS),分析得出中国出口增加主要因素是中国纸产品竞争力,市场规模的扩大对纸产品出口的正效应有所增强;市场分布存在不合理之处,阻碍出口。金融危机后,结合PMI采购经理指数,发现纸业受到了冲击,出现了一段时间的衰退;市场规模出现了萎缩,纸产品出口出现了下滑;市场需求结构出现了变化,东盟、南亚和中东等新兴市场有着巨大的市场潜力;企业要加强技术创新,进一步提高纸产品的国际竞争力,加快产品升级。
Before the financial crisis, Chinese paper products showed a rapid growth. Combined with the constant market share model (CMS), the main reason for the increase in China’s exports is the competitiveness of China’s paper products. The increase in market size has increased the positive effect of paper products’ exports; market distribution has been unreasonable and has impeded exports. After the financial crisis, combined with the PMI Purchasing Managers Index, it was found that the paper industry has been hit and has experienced a period of recession; the market scale has shrunk, paper products exports have declined; the market demand structure has changed, ASEAN, South Asia and the Middle East Emerging markets have huge market potential; enterprises must strengthen technological innovation, further improve the international competitiveness of paper products, and accelerate product upgrades.