论文部分内容阅读
本文建立了美国量化宽松政策对中国宏观经济影响的分析框架。从供给渠道看,量化宽松政策会引发中国进口商品价格上升并对中国经济的供给方造成负向冲击;从需求渠道看,量化宽松政策会促进中国出口增长并对中国经济的需求方造成正向冲击。实证研究显示:供给渠道下,量化宽松政策对进口商品价格有显著影响,对工业增加值的负面影响较小。由于没有考虑通胀与产出之间的替代关系,这里的实证结果会低估量化宽松政策对产出的负面影响。需求渠道下,量化宽松政策对出口增速有显著影响,但是由此带来的工业增加值变化很小。综合来看,量化宽松政策对短期内的宏观经济带来的是负面冲击。
This essay establishes the analytical framework of the impact of quantitative easing policy on China’s macro-economy. From the perspective of supply channels, the quantitative easing policy will trigger an increase in the prices of Chinese imports and a negative impact on the supply side of the Chinese economy. From the demand channel, QE will boost China’s export growth and give positive direction to the demand side of the Chinese economy Impact. Empirical studies show that under the supply channels, the quantitative easing policy has a significant impact on the prices of imported goods, with a negligible impact on the added value of the industry. Without accounting for the substitution between inflation and output, the empirical results here underestimate the negative impact of QE on output. Under the demand channel, the quantitative easing policy has a significant impact on export growth, but the resulting industrial added value has changed little. Taken together, the quantitative easing policy has a negative impact on the macroeconomic in the short term.