论文部分内容阅读
本文构建了一个用于分析自然灾害对区域农畜产品市场价格影响的自然灾害影响农业生产的分析模型,并基于多种统计与调查资料模拟了汶川特大地震对全国农畜产品市场价格的影响。模拟表明,汶川地震对全国水稻、小麦、玉米和猪肉主要农畜产品的市场价格的变化影响甚微,没有影响全国农业生产的基准面。不过,汶川地震毋容置疑地对当地农业生产造成了一定程度的影响,尤其是对重灾区种植业和养殖业造成了显著的影响。本文为准确评价自然灾害对农畜产品市场的影响、合理评估灾害损失及其中长期趋势提供了一种可资借鉴的方法,为制定并实施灾后农畜产品生产的规划提供了决策参考信息,为评估区域自然灾害对农畜产品市场价格的影响提供了借鉴。
This paper constructs an analysis model of natural disasters influencing agricultural production to analyze the impact of natural disasters on the market prices of agricultural products in the region and simulates the impact of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the market price of agricultural products based on various statistics and surveys. Simulations show that the Wenchuan earthquake has little effect on the market price changes of major agricultural and livestock products of rice, wheat, corn and pork in China and has no impact on the national agricultural production datum. However, the Wenchuan earthquake undoubtedly caused a certain degree of impact on local agricultural production, especially in hardest hit areas, planting and aquaculture had a significant impact. In order to accurately evaluate the impact of natural disasters on agricultural and livestock products markets and provide a reasonable reference for disaster loss and medium and long term trends, this paper provides a reference for the formulation and implementation of the planning of agricultural and livestock products production after disaster It provides reference for assessing the impact of natural disasters on the market prices of agricultural and livestock products in the region.