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“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)”课题组于2016年9月2日发布了中国季度宏观经济模型第二十一次预测。预测显示,2016年下半年中国经济增速仍将继续下行,但全面通货紧缩的风险相对较小,预计2016年实际GDP增速为6.63%,CPI增幅2.01%。课题组模拟了民间投资增速变动的宏观经济效应,政策模拟结果显示,若能提高投资回报率,使其维持在2013年同期约8%的水平,将显著提升民间投资增速,使中国经济在近期保持7%—8%的增长率;相反,若投资回报率连续出现较大幅度的下滑,其所导致的民间投资下降,将使中国经济降至比目前更低的增长水平。基于上述模拟结果,课题组建议:实行中性货币政策,稳定中国经济增长;实行宽松财政政策,促进中国经济增长;落实市场准入政策,扩大投资领域,稳定民间投资预期;加大对民间投资的融资支持;推进税制结构改革,降低企业税负。
“China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM) ” Task Force released its 21st-quarter forecast of China’s quarterly macroeconomic model on September 2, The forecast shows that in the second half of 2016, China’s economic growth will continue to go down. However, the overall risk of deflation is relatively small. The real GDP growth rate is expected to be 6.63% in 2016 and the CPI will increase by 2.01%. The research team simulated the macroeconomic effects of the growth rate of private investment. The results of the policy simulation show that if the rate of return on investment can be increased to maintain the level of about 8% over the same period in 2013, the growth rate of private investment will be significantly raised and the economy of China In the near future, it will maintain a growth rate of 7% -8%. On the contrary, if the rate of return on investment continues to decline by a relatively large margin, the decline in private investment caused by it will reduce the Chinese economy to a lower level than it currently has. Based on the above simulation results, the research group recommends: implementing a neutral monetary policy to stabilize China’s economic growth; implementing a relaxed fiscal policy to promote China’s economic growth; implementing market access policies, expanding investment areas and stabilizing private investment expectations; increasing investment in private sector Of the financing support; promote tax system structure reform, reduce corporate tax burden.