论文部分内容阅读
自然灾害风险分析,是对风险区遭受不同强度自然灾害的可能性和可能造成的后果进行定量的分析和评估。通常人们把自然灾害视为随机事件,用数学上的概率来度量其可能性。本文以自然灾害模糊风险中的病虫害各因素分析风险模型为例,用模糊概率来分析其模糊风险,求出模糊概率分布的期望值,与给定的期望值进行对比,能判定自然灾害发生的概率,从而起到预防灾害发生的作用。它具有很强的解释性,操作容易,对于风险模型的建立非常重要。
Natural disaster risk analysis is a quantitative analysis and assessment of the probability of the natural disaster being exposed to different levels of natural disasters and the possible consequences. Often people regard natural disasters as random events, measuring their probability with mathematical probabilities. In this paper, taking the risk model of pests and diseases in the fuzzy risk of natural disasters as an example, this paper uses the fuzzy probability to analyze the fuzzy risk, obtains the expected value of the fuzzy probability distribution, compares it with the given expected value, and can determine the probability of natural disasters, Thus play a preventive role in disaster occurrence. It has a strong explanatory, easy to operate, very important for the establishment of a risk model.