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基于集成分析的思想 ,对不同时间分辨率的自然信息所反映的过去 3ka我国冷暖变化进行综合分析 ,划分了百年尺度上过去 3ka冷暖变化的阶段 ,进而发现冷暖变化呈现 1.3～ 1 35ka的重现周期 ,每个周期包含相继出现的 4冷暖阶段 :持续 30 0～ 35 0a的暖期、5 5 0～ 6 0 0a的冷期、2 0 0～ 2 5 0a的暖期和 2 0 0a左右的冷期。每个冷暖期中发生的相对冷暖事件也服从 1.3～ 1.35ka周期。在冷暖变化幅度上 ,30 0～ 35 0a的暖期较 2 0 0～ 2 5 0a的暖期显著 ,5 5 0～ 6 0 0a的冷期较 2 0 0a左右的冷期显著。目前处在长度为 2 0 0～ 2 5 0a的暖期中 ,其特点可以与 2 .7～ 2 .5kaBP和 1.4 0～ 1.15kaBP的暖期相类比。
Based on the idea of integrated analysis, this paper analyzes the change of the cold and warm in China in the past 3ka, which is reflected by the natural information of different time resolution, and divides the stage of the change in the past 3ka on the centennial scale, and finds that the variation of the cold and the warmth is 1.3 to 35ka Cycle, each cycle includes four successive warm and cold phases: a warm period lasting 30 0 ~ 35 0a, a cold period of 550 ~ 6 0 0a, a warm period of 2 0 0 ~ 250 a, and a period of about 2 0 0 a Cold period. The relative warm-up events occurring during each warm-cold period are also subject to a period of 1.3-1.35ka. In the range of warming and thawing, the warm period of 30 0 ~ 35 0a is more significant than the warm period of 20 0 ~ 25 0 0a, while the cold period of 550 ~ 6 0 0a is significantly cooler than that of 2 0 0a. At present, in the warm period of 200-250a, the characteristics are similar to those of warm period of 2.7-7.5kaBP and 1.4-0-1.15kaBP.