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如果一件事直接导致另一件事,它们则被称作具有因果关系——从高楼上跳下肯定差不多会摔得血肉横飞,古老的俄罗斯轮盘赌游戏也是这样。但俄罗斯轮盘赌并不只有一个结果,也有可能幸存。同样,去蚊子横行的中非丛林旅行也不一定会导致疟疾,尽管有此可能。结果中有我们所称的不确定性,在这种不确定性中概率的使用是最经常的,正如我们一直用到现在的一样。如果我们把因果顺序倒置过来,讨论还是一样的。有些情况是,在知道原因的情况下讨论结果中的不确定性,而当我们知道结果时,也很难确定原因。一般说,原因会有好几个,不可能确定哪一个是真正的原因。这就是不确定性。在风险分析中使用因果关系涉及两个方面的不确定性。一个原因不一定只有一个后果,一个后果也不一定只有一个原因。重要的是要强调这种不确定性是内在的,而非没有付出足够的时间和努力得出结果。亚伯拉罕·林肯说,“几乎没有什么事情是百分之百的好或百分之百的坏。特别是政府的每一项政策都是好坏两方面不可分割的结合。因此不断要求我们对好坏两方面孰占优势作出最佳判断。”
If one thing leads directly to another, they are said to have a causal relationship - jumped on the upstairs is almost certain to fall, and so is the ancient Russian roulette game. But Russian roulette does not have only one result, it is possible to survive. Similarly, jungle trips to Central Africa with mosquitoes do not necessarily lead to malaria, albeit with this. The result is what we call uncertainty, in which the use of probability is most frequent, as we have always used the present. If we invert the causal order, the discussion is still the same. In some cases, the uncertainty in the outcome is discussed with the cause in mind, and when we know the outcome, it is difficult to determine the cause. In general, there are several reasons why it is impossible to determine which one is the real one. This is uncertainty. The use of causal relationships in risk analysis involves two aspects of uncertainty. One reason does not necessarily have only one consequence, but one consequence may not necessarily be one cause. It is important to emphasize that this uncertainty is intrinsic rather than not giving up enough time and effort to reach a conclusion. Abraham Lincoln said: “Almost nothing is 100% good or 100% bad, especially since every government policy is an indivisible combination of good and ill both, so keep asking us what is good or bad Advantages to make the best judgments. ”