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加入世界贸易组织后,中国的对外贸易是否会受到严重的影响?中国多年持续的贸易顺差能否继续持续?2003年度中国对外贸易能否继续保持高速增长?这些问题不仅是政府决策部门和学术界关注的热点话题,也是企业界非常关注的宏观经济问题。在本文中,我们首先总结2002年中国外贸的基本情况,然后用计量模型对2003年度中国对外贸易进行预测和分析。
Will China’s foreign trade be seriously affected after its accession to the World Trade Organization? Will China’s continuous trade surplus continue for many years? Will China’s foreign trade continue its rapid growth in 2003? These issues are not only the government decision-making departments and academia The hot topics of concern are also macroeconomic issues of great concern to the business community. In this paper, we first summarize the basic situation of China’s foreign trade in 2002, and then use the econometric model to forecast and analyze the 2003 China’s foreign trade.